Mr. Seamus Coffey:

The Department has already downgraded its growth forecast by half a percentage point over the next number of years because of the impact of Brexit. It is likely to have a level effect. The ESRI, which will be the committee's next delegation, has done long-term work on the impact of Brexit and is probably in a better position to analyse it. Brexit will have an impact on the economy. Our view is that it could reduce our potential growth rates and will have an impact on trade. That could affect the economy's ability to generate resources and revenues for the Government, so it will have a significant impact. The growth forecast of half a percentage point for each year that the Department of Finance has built in is appropriate and takes the context into account.

However, the impact could be worse. Perhaps the impact on our trading relationships will be more severe, particularly given the fact that the types of industry - the domestic indigenous manufacturing and agrifood sectors - that trade with the UK are labour intensive. We do not know what Brexit will bring. It could be a soft Brexit. They might reach an agreement over the next 18 months. It does not look like they will at the moment, but such negotiations are renowned for their brinkmanship, so perhaps something might happen.

Were the CCCTB to be introduced, which I do not believe will happen, it would have a large effect on one of our key economic policies.