Mr. Seamus Coffey:

It is not necessarily the case that we are wary or weary of capital expenditure, but we point out that capital expenditure is set to increase very rapidly and that we should ensure that, if this is where scarce resources are to be allocated, we get the most value for them. In certain elements there was increased capital spending in the period to 2007 and 2008 and perhaps the money was not all spent in the best fashion. For example, the rail operator is proposing the closure of lines which received substantial public investment in recent years. If we use scarce resources, we must get the best value for them. From an economics perspective, we look at the cost versus the benefits and ensuring the projects undertaken offer the best cost-benefit analysis, however they are measured. We can measure the costs and benefits in a variety of ways. Given the amount of money set to be allocated for capital projects, our view is that they should be assessed carefully and it should not just be a case of something being a priority at present in order that money will be allocated for it to increase activity. We would also like to see some achievements.

On forecasting corporation tax figures, the Deputy said there had been a difficulty in recent years. There was a difficulty in one year, in particular. The forecasts for 2015 were out by a huge margin because of a huge unforeseen increase. We do not believe anybody was saying in that one year corporation tax receipts would increase by 50%. In that year it was down to a wide range of factors which seemed to coincide, with small companies paying a little more tax and companies which had not previously paid tax making positive payments. There was also taxation on capital, as well as taxation payments from multinationals. An entire gamut of factors came together in 2015 which caused tax revenue to increase by such a large amount. For 2016, the Department's forecast was fairly close to the outturn predicted and the forecast for 2017 equally looks to be appropriate. I do not think we have huge issues. If things are unforeseen, they are unforeseen. One of the reasons for making forecasts is not necessarily to be right but to have a sound basis for plans regarding what is expected to happen. The unexpected does happen and just because people get forecasts wrong is not a reason to state the entire approach taken is incorrect.

On whether Brexit or the CCCTB is more serious, assuming they both happen, the CCCTB is more serious as we can work our way around Brexit which will have an impact. The United Kingdom is a large country with significant links with Ireland, but in terms of our economic approach and attracting foreign direct investment, the long-term impact of the CCCTB would outweigh the risks associated with Brexit. In saying this I do not believe the CCCTB will happen; therefore, for which of these risks should we prepare?

We should prepare ourselves for Brexit, since it is going to happen. I do not see the CCCTB happening.