Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ex-ante Scrutiny of Budget 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Economic and Social Research Institute

2:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

There were a lot of issues raised. There is no doubt we consider housing to be a serious issue. Our mandate is to assess prudent economic and budgetary management. If housing did not have an impact on that, it would not be in our reports. We recognise that housing is something that could have a severe impact on the economy. One issue we are looking at is its impact on the overall state of the economy in relation to the business cycle but, equally, there is an impact in the sense of having housing available. Housing output should and probably will increase. We just need to be cautious of the impact that has on the broader economy.

Whether there is an infrastructure deficit in Ireland is much more difficult to measure. We can talk about individual areas where we feel there are shortages but capital spending is something that happens on an ongoing basis. There always are areas where improvement can be made. Whether there is a significant deficit in Ireland relative to other countries is quite difficult to measure because understanding what the public capital stock is and how it compares to that of other countries is quite difficult. We have done some preliminary work on it and I am not sure whether it shows that we would have an infrastructure deficit. However, one can highlight priorities. If housing, particularly, say, the construction of public housing, is felt to be a priority, we feel that the private sector has a role to play.

Deputy Boyd Barrett asked if €500 million is enough. It is just a net figure. As the Deputy pointed out, within that one can reallocate existing resources - the Government spends close on €60 million - or one can raise additional tax revenue. If we feel there are priorities that we want resources to be allocated to, the fiscal rules do not prevent that. It is up to us to make the decision and ask, "What do we want to do?" The purpose of the fiscal rules is that once we make those decisions, we do not want to go back to a stage where one would have to make cutbacks and have forced consolidation again. If people feel that the role of the Government in the economy is important and the Government should be providing services and supports, they should be in favour of the fiscal rules because they put the provision of those services and supports on a more sustainable footing and, if the fiscal rules impose certain restraints, it is simply because we do not want to go back to the period where we had to cut back again.

Deputy Boyd Barrett made a number of points on corporation tax. One point I would make is that while there has been a dramatic increase in corporate profits, equally, there has been a dramatic increase in corporation tax receipts, which is having an impact on the economy. As the profits have risen, the receipts have risen. In 2014, we collected €4.6 billion. The following year, we collected €6.9 billion - a rise of 50% in one year. Most of our corporation tax, 80%, is paid by the multinationals. That increase alone for one year, in 2015, was worth approximately €1,500 to every household in the country.

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