Mr. Seamus Coffey:

There are different definitions of net fiscal space. Our starting position, under the expenditure benchmark, is that the gross fiscal space is €1.7 billion but there are various changes within that. An addition is the extra revenue we will collect from the non-indexation of the tax system. As incomes rise we get additional revenue from keeping bands and credits at the same level.

That will add about €0.5 billion. One then has to begin to subtract. One subtraction will be for demographic pressures as a result of automatic increases in spending, for example, in some social welfare payments due to an increased number of recipients. The Government does not do anything there but more money will have to be expended because there will be an increased number of recipients. Demographic pressures will have to be allowed for in other areas, including in education to provide for additional teachers to staff schools and keep student-teacher ratios relatively constant. That provision would be a subtraction. Furthermore, there would be a subtraction for previous measures that have been announced, measures that have to be paid for in a full year in 2018 that were not paid for in a full-year in 2017. In last year's budget the Government increased certain social welfare payments but only from start of March whereas for 2018 those provisions will have to be paid over a 12-month period. Some tax measures have a larger cost in the second year, and that will further subtract form the fiscal space. In our estimation, once those three elements are accounted for, the fiscal space will be down to about €650 million. One further element, which it seems likely will happen, is the public sector pay deal, which will probably cost around €150 million. That is not agreed yet but it looks like it will be. Our estimate is that on budget day, there will be €500 million available for fiscal measures. What that would achieve is-----