Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ex-ante Scrutiny of Budget 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Economic and Social Research Institute

2:00 pm

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

We have always made the point that we feel it is a measure which ultimately stimulates demand. By stimulating demand, one will bring on supply but it is not the most efficient way to do it. With the COre Structural MOdel, COSMO, relating to Brexit, we have always been very careful to lay out that it only looks at one particular facet of Brexit, assessing, in particular, the trade impact. Brexit will hit the Irish economy in many different ways and, for example, Dr. Lawless has done detailed work indicating effects in supply chains, particularly in the agrifood sector. It is very difficult to quantify those. The macro modelling exercise focuses essentially on one element of Brexit, which is the trade element.

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