Professor Alan Barrett:

There is a common set of figures. In respect of the EU, there is a working group on ageing that has met for many years and produces reports on this. The group uses common sets and agreed sets of population projections. The Department of Finance represents Ireland on this group and would have inputs. We have very good demographic projections linking those projections to things like pension costs, health care costs and education. Really elaborate work has been done on this. I often make the point that we should be very coy when economists start talking about economic forecasts because that is a very difficult thing to do. We are much better at demographic projections because we have a rough idea of what fertility and mortality are. Migration is a tricky one but we know an awful lot more. Population ageing is something that is way more predictable. Linking it to things like increases in pension costs is way more predictable. The data and projections are there and all Departments know what they are facing. It is just a question of getting people to lock in and really focus on the issues.