Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ex-ante Scrutiny of Budget 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Economic and Social Research Institute

2:00 pm

Photo of Eamon RyanEamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

I will try to be brief. I am a member of the Committee on Procedure and Privileges. That committee has been discussing how members go about questioning witnesses and how witnesses should not be put under too much pressure, such as having to spend two hours answering questions and so on.

What has been said so far at this meeting has been very interesting and useful. One of the messages coming across is that if the economy overheats, as could happen in the housing sector in a similar fashion to what happened in the early 2000s if construction is stepped up, as all members agree needs to happen, the witnesses said that off-setting measures may have to be taken elsewhere to counteract this. Professor John FitzGerald expressed a similar view in an article he wrote which appeared in The Irish Times on Friday, 8 September 2017, although he was more specific and said that taxes would have to be raised as a way of damping that down. I have two questions on that issue. I note the answer in reply to Deputy Burton that the IFAC is not specific on one tax versus another but have the witnesses done any analysis on what tax should be raised? It is very easy to say in a general manner that taxes might have to be raised to damp down the economy but the poor politician who would have to introduce the measure would have to explain exactly how and why. Has any analysis been done as to what form of tax increase is most suitable if one wants to dampen down a heating economy? Would it be income tax, consumption tax, capital tax or another? Has any analysis been done? I do not want the witnesses to name their favourite tax but has any analysis been done as to what tax would be best to raise, if such is to be done? Would it be better to cut expenditure? What is the better instrument to use, if it has to be used?

In regard to the question on private debt, surely that is part of the equation in that the fiscal space is being looked at but if the overall economy is overheating, what is happening in the credit markets must affect that level of overheating. Is that not another so-called off-setting action? If there was a tightening of credit at the relevant time, would that suffice in place of a tax increase or a cut in current expenditure? That is my first question. Perhaps it could be addressed and I might then be permitted to ask a second.

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