Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 September 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ex-ante Scrutiny of Budget 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Economic and Social Research Institute

2:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

Briefly, on corporation tax volatility, that inherent volatility will remain. One issue with the current scale and size of the corporation tax receipts is they will remain volatile. They may be volatile at a higher level than we have seen, for example, up to 2014. That inherent volatility remains. Measures could be introduced to try to smooth the receipts of corporation tax over a period. The report released yesterday includes a recommendation to try to smooth the receipts in terms of the capital allowance for intangibles. It recommends that the allowance be spread over a longer period and that revenue be collected every year, rather than waiting until the full capital allowances have been exhausted.

In respect of some of the other issues the Deputy mentioned, the issue with linking housing with things like public debt is that the housing output could increase. For most of us, if we want to do more of one thing we give up something else. Within our incomes we look at spending on different things. If I want to spend more on entertainment, I spend less on travel - or whatever it is that I move around. For a country or a Government that choice is not necessarily restrictive, particularly when it comes to housing output. We do not have to have less consumption to undertake more housing infrastructure because it can be funded through credit expansion. The issue is that, as the economy approaches its potential in terms of output, we could see further increases on the demand side, in terms of increased housing output, without having to cut back anywhere else. We could have an increase in consumption and an increase in capital spending and perhaps the economy would be performing above its capacity. There is a fear that could happen. Those who are calling for offsetting measures are looking at what the economy is capable of producing.

If it is the case that housing output ramps up quickly, driven by credit expansion and bringing workers in, we should not consider that to be a structural or permanent feature in the economy because it could be reversed.

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