Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 20 July 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Summer Economic Statement: Discussion.

10:15 am

Photo of Paschal DonohoePaschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

What I have said, including at this committee today, is that I do not believe the economy is overheating. The reason I do not believe this is that the unemployment rate is still coming down and the pace of wage growth is in line with what one would expect to see after a horrific crash, when people are trying to rebuild their living standards. Wage growth of that magnitude is good because people need it and also because it feeds into a potential pattern of sustainability for our economy given that, in turn, people then have greater confidence about the domestic economy. That is what has happened this year, and it is all important. What I am simply saying is that if the labour market continues to improve at the rate at which it is improving and when we see unemployment begin to fall significantly below 6%, then we will have to consider other things in terms of the ability of the economy to translate more investment by the taxpayer into increased activity as opposed to higher prices. I am simply saying it could be a risk in the future. Against all of that, we could see a whole lot of other things occur that will mean it will not happen. We could see developments in respect of Brexit or in the context of the British economy or the American economy that will mean the risks I am talking about do not materialise. However, if I did not call that out as a risk now, then I would not be reflecting and learning from what happened to us all a number of years ago.

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