Rose Conway Walsh (Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

On the Brexit projections, the Irish Fiscal Council Advisory and the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, have clearly voiced concerns that the model for Ireland being used by the Department, the COre Structural MOdel, COSMO, may underestimate the potential effect of a hard Brexit. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council's chief economist told the Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight that it was worried that the figures from the Department of Finance were too optimistic, on three grounds, that the model used did not take into account the fact that exports to Britain were more labour intensive than in other export markets; that COSMO could underestimate the shock impact of Brexit and that the model did not take into account the exchange rate changes which had been a feature of the Brexit process to that point. When he was pushed on the possible implications, he confirmed that the effect could be significant. That is a significant statement which adds to the argument against cutting the universal social charge. What action has the Minister taken on foot of it and has he discussed the matter with his officials or the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council or the ESRI that share that analysis? It is a question of the model being used.