Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion

4:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

I will take the GDP question. What has been proposed for the CSO by a group, which has been put together to examine it, is not to change GDP. It will continue to be measured in Ireland, the figures will continue to be reported and they will continue to be used internationally. Many of our legal obligations are set in terms of GDP, so GDP figures will continue to be set out. Gross domestic product is a measure of output and what happens within the borders of a country. A huge amount of what happens within the borders of the Irish economy is driven by the presence of multinational companies so while they are generating output and profits, those profits are not accruing to Irish residents. We would like to know what is happening to the earnings of Irish residents, and that is the reason we need to make some of these adjustments.

Will GNI* be recognised internationally? The answer is "No". It is complicated enough to explain it here where people might have some understanding of what is happening in the Irish economy. In terms of talking about redomiciled PLCs and onshoring of IP internationally, whatever glazing over of eyes happens when one tries to explain that to Irish people, it will not happen internationally. GNI* will not be recognised internationally. What we would like to get is a growth rate so that we could determine what is happening to the Irish economy and the incomes of Irish people, get a better measure of the Irish economy that way and have that feed into policy. A 26% GDP growth rate should not be driving any policy in Ireland. We would like to know what is happening to the Irish economy as opposed to the economy in Ireland. GNI* is important. I do not necessarily believe it has reputational damage for Ireland. Much of the damage was done by a 26% GDP growth rate. Stripping out some of the factors that caused that should have a positive implication if we can now say, "There are particular circumstances in Ireland. There is 26% growth in GDP, but let us do a bit of hand waving, see what is happening on the ground and get this measured GNI*." I do not believe there will be reputational damage. It is a problem that has to be addressed, but it is very much for a domestic audience. The European Commission will not assess us in terms of GNI*. It is not something that will be used internationally, but it does solve a domestic problem.

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