Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion

4:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

Yes. When we meet the medium-term objective, MTO, in 2018, we will have reached a balanced budget in structural terms. Rather than having to make an improvement each year, we will just have to maintain that level. Currently, we must make improvements of 0.6 percentage points of GDP, which limits the fiscal space that is available because we want to improve the structural deficit. Once we reach the medium-term deficit objective, we will no longer have to make that improvement. In a sense, the space that is taken up each year by making improvements will be available for use. We should be in a position to grow spending net of discretionary measures at the long-run potential growth of the economy. To make improvements now, we should be growing spending at less than the long-run potential growth of the economy. Once we reach the MTO, there will no longer be a need for that improvement. In the expenditure benchmark, this is called the convergence margin, that is, how quickly one must converge with one's MTO. This should be limiting our current spending. Once the MTO is reached in 2018, the convergence margin no longer applies. Hence, we will get more space in 2019, 2020 and 2021. There is so far that we must go and the rules require us to reach a balanced budget in structural terms. The issue for us is that we are not reaching that at the required pace.

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