Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 May 2017

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Defence

Implications of Brexit for Foreign Policy: Discussion

9:30 am

Professor Gavin Barrett:

I thank members for the questions. In respect of what the Chairman said about different regulatory regimes, a free trade agreement, if we get one, should preserve the free movement of goods between the two countries, although the United Kingdom will have to observe EU standards generally. They will have to follow the EU regulatory regime on an ongoing basis.

There are problems in terms of exports as well because China, for instance, recognises EU safety standards. It is very difficult to get that kind of recognition. The UK will no longer have that. I do not know what effect that will have on the industry.

The Chairman mentioned the absence of the Border. As I stated, it is dependent on the UK staying in the customs union. Unfortunately, Theresa May's priorities seem to be elsewhere. One example of that is how remarkably little priority is paid to the needs of the regions - I do not know what is the correct expression but I refer to Scotland and Ireland in that regard.

Another implication in the area the Chairman spoke about is the Common Agricultural Policy. The United Kingdom is a massive contributor to the EU budget. That will hurt farmers in Northern Ireland in a big way from 2020 onwards but it will also hurt farmers in the Republic. There is a lot of pain to go round in that regard.

The Chairman mentioned a land bridge. Interestingly, that is specifically referred to in the Commission draft mandate so it is on to this one and it is looking out for it. In other words, a special provision is being made to ensure that Irish products being exported to the Continent can go through in sealed containers or something like that or will have special routes. We will need to watch that one but it is something to which the Commission is paying attention.

Deputy Darragh O'Brien asked what the UK wanted and said that they do not seem to know. We were told that Brexit means Brexit, which is a highly ambiguous statement. Ambiguity and lack of clarity can be useful at times. For instance, it is an advantage in the sense that when Theresa May comes out of the next election, it is likely she will have a much bigger majority. Currently, she is in thrall to the Conservative Party right wing. She cannot help but be if she wants to remain in power. Hopefully, she will have a bigger majority and, fingers crossed - we do not know this will be the case - it will be a more moderate majority. If that is the case, she will get more room to manoeuvre and, hopefully, she might be able to change her mind regarding the customs union issue. She has not backed down on it yet but it is receiving less stress at the moment.

In terms of any chance of a comeback from the edge, Brexit will certainly happen. John Temple Lang, who is a legal scholar, has put forward his view. He believes that in the course of negotiations economic necessity will come to prevail and that Britain will more or less find itself corralled into a Norway-type relationship for want of alternative, sensible economic relationships. I hope that is right. I do not know if it is but I will keep my fingers crossed in that regard.

On the question as to whether a new Good Friday Agreement is needed, that is unlikely. The core of what is being aimed at is that current arrangements will remain undisturbed. I refer to human rights protection, the common travel area, to the largest extent possible, funding in deprived Border areas and so on. Those aspects will be focused on.

On the Deputy's point about Ireland being seen as a Trojan horse, he is absolutely right. That comes back to my point that we are being pulled in two different directions in this regard. It is a very difficult situation but our best interests lie in being seen with Europe.

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