Michael D'Arcy (Wexford, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

Five or six months ago the expectation was that the worst-case scenario would be World Trade Organization tariffs, if the EU and UK did not come to a position 24 months after Brexit is triggered at the end of the month. Prior to the November speech by the British Prime Minister, Mrs. May, nobody expected the UK to leave the customs Union and the Single Market. That was certainly unexpected. I have been making the point for some time - it was based on bitter experience following the banking inquiry - that nobody did the analysis for the worst-case scenario. The beef sector is likely to be the worst-case scenario because of World Trade Organization tariffs on quantities of beef. I have made the point on numerous occasions - not to the Minister or his officials - but to the IFA at the launch of its Brexit report and to the Secretary General of the Department of Finance. There has been no analysis of the worst case scenario of a trade war, which now cannot be written out of the conversation. It was not even in the conversation five or six months ago and no analysis has been done.

Bord Bia is talking about spending an extra €4 million or €5 million on the beef sector, which is worth €4.5 billion. The potential exists for a catastrophe in the beef sector in two years time. I do not think a longitudinal worst-case scenario analysis is being done by anybody. Nobody wants to go there. Nobody wants to get into a trade war, but that possibility cannot be discounted.