Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Macroeconomic Outlook: IBEC

2:00 pm

Mr. Fergal O'Brien:

-----such as the European Investment Bank and public private partnerships. There are many solutions. That is the scale. I mentioned the percentage target to focus the mind. It would involve the investment of an extra €6.5 billion.

The Deputy is right when he says that the implications of Brexit to date have mainly related to currency. While we have been here before with regard to currency, this time is different and we are seeing much more significant impacts because people are expecting a permanent change in the trading relationship. The problems caused by the supply-chain reaction of the currency have been more significant than the problems we would have seen if the currency was the only issue. People are changing where they are sourcing their products from. That is definitely happening in a way that is not justified by the currency alone. I agree with the Deputy that the trading relationships between Europe and the UK will be put back together when the dust settles in the long term. Our big concern relates to the impact on our economy of the kind of dislocation we will see in the interim. We could well go over the edge of the cliff because of a failure to reach transitional agreements. The mutual interests of the big European trading blocs and the UK might well mean that the pieces get put back together over time, but we could have a lot of carnage along the way. Our main concern is that Ireland could be in the firing line when that carnage happens. The current arrangements might get put back together, but not before we get a lot of economic pain.

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