Mr. Jim Power:

Deputy Jackie Cahill highlighted the dairy sector and milk processing. A total of 800 million litres of milk come over the Border every year for processing in County Cavan and around the Border area. In the event of a hard Brexit that would effectively stop. The result would be that milk processing plants in County Cavan would shut down. They would have to build milk processing plants north of the Border. That is just one tiny example of just how serious this is. We have lived through a dramatic recession and recessions are cyclical by nature. They happen every six to seven years globally. I believe Brexit is a much more fundamental structural change in an incredibly important trading relationship that Ireland has; therefore, I do not believe it should be looked at in the same light as we would look at a recession. It is a structural change.

I hope the Deputy is correct that Britain will protect its farmers and that they will try to adopt a very supportive attitude and move away from a cheap food policy, but the track record would suggest there is little likelihood of that happening. The UK consumer wants cheap food and that has been the reality for decades. One of Ireland's big problems is a good deal of what we export to the United Kingdom is dominated by commodities and unbranded food products; therefore, I believe they are the ones that are very exposed because they are very sensitive to price. Perhaps it is the case that there will be some customer loyalty to brands and to the branded products we sell.

Deputy Michael D'Arcy raised the question of brand loyalty among the British public. That will help the branded products to some extent, but I believe it will to a very limited extent. At the end of the day, price will be the determining factor. If we get a combination of sterling weakness and tariffs on trade, that will have a massive impact, of that there is no doubt.

A total of 49% of our beef exports go to the UK market. That is by far the sector that is most exposed. As we move up from commoditised type products to branded products, the impact starts to lessen, but it is the commoditised products that make up the bulk and that is the part that is most seriously exposed. I skipped through my opening statement because it was too long but one of the statistics in it shows that between January 2008 and October 2016 average food prices in this country declined by 9.9%. There is a trend towards cheap food and it is being driven by competition in the groceries sector.

That is why I believe there is no logic or reason for cross-Border shopping at present based on price differentials. However, similar trends are evident in the United Kingdom and I do not envisage that changing. Cheap food will continue to be the mantra and that will really complicate Ireland's situation vis-à-visthe United Kingdom. I strongly advocate that organisations such as Bord Bia be given increased resources and funding to build other non-UK markets for Irish food exports. That is something we should begin now, not two years hence when a hard Brexit will probably become a reality.