Professor John McHale:

I would say that the 50% growth in corporation tax revenue in 2015 really was a surprise. It was not predicted. When one has something that was not anticipated in advance, there can be difficulty even understanding when it has taken place. We are, however getting a better, but limited, handle on it and then we will have the ability to be reasonably confident that those revenues will remain there in the future. The thing about surprises is that they can come from lots of different sources. We certainly see a world with many potential downside risks, whether that risk comes from the US with its new Administration or from the eurozone where there is always the possibility of events taking a bad turn, be it led from events in Italy or elsewhere. At the moment some of the signs of the form Brexit will take are not particularly encouraging. It could, however, be something completely different. We live in this very uncertain world and we are still in quite a vulnerable place. I know there is a sense that the bad times are behind us and why is the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council going on about the crisis and the vulnerabilities, but they are really still there. We still carry a lot of debt forward with us from that crisis period. Although things have recently taken a reasonable turn for the better, they could again take a turn for the worse. It is not just a case of specific risks that we could confidently identify as adverse events that will happen; the more general point is to be ready and to be in a strong position to be able to sustain Government spending if such an adverse event were to occur.