Mr. Ronan Hession:

As I explained, this proposal was published five weeks ago. We are doing a preliminary analysis. We may need to commission more detailed work on that. The Commission's published view is that the impact on corporation tax receipts would be a reduction of 0.14% which, based on 2014 figures, was approximately €250 million. It foresees a buoyancy effect from the CCCTB and sees the overall proposal as being tax neutral. The publication by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, yesterday draws quite heavily on the analysis by Ernst & Young in 2011 which stated that foreign direct investment, FDI, would be reduced by 4.6% and corporation tax receipts by 5.7%. There were further impacts outlined in the new Ernst & Young analysis that GDP would be negatively affected by 1.4% and employment by 1.3%. The effect would be greatest on Ireland. The analysis that has come out so far, whether from the Commission, the ESRI or Ernst & Young, points to a negative effect on corporation tax receipts. The Commission argues that it expects a buoyancy effect that would neutralise that. I am not an expert on the fiscal rules but my understanding is that ordinarily, if we were to introduce a new tax expenditure we would not be allowed to pay for it by buoyancy measures. We would have to find the money upfront.