Dr. Kevin Hanrahan:

Senator Pádraig Mac Lochlainn asked about the potential for the UK to engage in free trade agreements with the US and Canada. We have not done any more detailed modelling on the potential of what it might cause. For most of our careers, we have been involved in modelling trade integration agreements, such as a World Trade Organisation, WTO, agreement or the transatlantic trade and investment partnership, TTIP. Now, we are examining disintegrating potentials or the impact of FTAs between the UK and others. We have not done any detailed analysis yet. We are waiting for more clarity to emerge about what will happen in terms of the trade rules.

If the UK were to reach FTAs with the US and countries such as Canada quickly, and if there were no barriers between the UK and such suppliers, we could expect UK prices to decrease. Given the continued importance of the UK market for Irish agriculture, we could expect Irish prices to fall as a result. The magnitude of the fall would depend on many factors and we have no detailed analysis of how large it would be. However, it would almost certainly be a negative for Irish agricultural prices and, as a result, agricultural incomes. This just presents a downside for the Irish agrifood sector.