Dr. Anthony Soares:

I thank Senator Craughwell for his questions. He made a very good point about the focus on the UK and Ireland, given that another 26 member states are involved here. I return to the point that the Irish Government will have a huge burden on its shoulders as we go forward to achieve the best possible resolution for the UK and Ireland and obviously for Northern Ireland. The Centre for Cross Border Studies is concerned that if the UK approaches the negotiations in an aggressive manner, that will affect whatever Ireland tries to do to protect its own interests. I emphasise that we believe the best approach would be some sort of flexible arrangement, or whatever term one wants to use, that would allow Northern Ireland to have some sort of continuing relationship with the EU. That connection could take any form. It does not need to be formal. Ireland should be making the argument to the Commission and the other member states that its own interests need to be protected because of its geographical position and because it is a co-guarantor with the UK of the 1998 Agreement. Ireland should be arguing that case. The UK and Northern Ireland should not be trying to argue that case themselves. In our view, it should be Ireland doing that. If that is the approach Ireland wants to take, it is clear that whatever the UK says will have an effect.

I agree with Mr. Sheridan that there is no indication in Northern Ireland of a softening in the "Leave" position. The "Leave" voters in the agrifood sector to whom I have spoken, including a number of farmers who told me before the referendum that they intended to vote "Leave", have said since the referendum that they do not regret the decision to vote in that way. I do not notice any softening there. In that context, although the First Minister and deputy First Minister have shared with the Prime Minister their common concerns for Northern Ireland in terms of what might happen in the future and what they would like from the negotiations, we would have liked to have seen some firm proposals on how to take things forward, rather than mere expressions of concern.

This brings me on to the Senator's question about how to get all interested parties around the table at the all-island forum. Before one can think about how to get everyone around the table, one must identify who has not accepted the invitation. Then one must speak to those parties to ascertain why they do not want to participate. I hope they will participate in the future. I think people could be more welcoming of such an invitation if they saw the forum as something that will come up with concrete proposals on how to move things forward, rather than just voicing the concerns that were listed in the run-up to and since the referendum. The concerns are known, they are out there and it seems to some people they have been repeated ad nauseam. Now it is time to consider how to move things forward. We have to prepare for the different possible scenarios.

The Senator also asked if we are preparing for different models. We are taking a twin-track approach. I think we have to be realistic here. Political revolutions have been going on throughout 2016 on this island, both North and South, as well as in Great Britain and America. The centre is keeping a close eye on what is happening in Westminster. We just do not know whether Article 50 will be triggered. We have to be prepared for that vague possibility. We have to prepare for various scenarios, depending on whether the UK maintains access to the Single Market or stays within the customs union. The decisions and choices that are made will have an effect on the Border, on trade and on the movement of people.

In the run-up to the referendum and after the referendum, some Ministers in the UK Government portrayed the common travel area as something that will carry on because it has existed since the 1920s. It is not up to the UK and Irish Governments to decide whether the common travel area will continue. The EU will have a say on whether the common travel area carries on and the way it carries on. That is going to be difficult. The UK, outside the EU, can make any decision it likes on the rights it wants to give to Irish citizens, who currently have privileged rights under UK law. It will be able to decide what it wants from a position outside the EU. The Irish Government will not have the same flexibility in terms of the rights it can cede to UK citizens to move to the Republic of Ireland to work, study and draw their pensions. All of those things currently happen with no real complications at all. It will be up to the EU whether to allow the Irish Government to provide rights to UK citizens who will no longer be within the EU.