Dr. Cyril Roux:

I am a bit stuck by the fact that this surplus moniker is a statistic and not an actuarial, regulatory or supervisory term. My sense is if that is the case, one might expect some insurers to bring down the prices for young drivers. That is what one might expect to see. It would not go to the average level because young drivers have more accidents. This goes back to my point on uncertainty. When a person looks for insurance cover and there is a long history of being insured, the insurers know more about that person and can price more precisely about risk. A young driver does not have a claims history and the insurers build in a greater margin for uncertainty. They do not know if a young driver drives safely because there is no history on which to build. One would expect a greater margin of uncertainty.