Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance) | Oireachtas source

I have a nagging feeling about this whole session. I am wondering exactly what we are doing here. I know that all this technical work has to be done. When the witnesses say that the risks are all tilted on the downside, it is at that point that I begin to wonder the extent to which all of this goes out the window if certain of those risks materialise. What precisely are we supposed to do about the risks? I understand that the witnesses cannot veer into policy but maybe they can talk to me a little bit about precisely what their role is in setting out risks and how far they go in suggesting that we have to respond to certain risks. Perhaps the witnesses could talk a little bit about that.

I agree with the witnesses. I believe the external risks and I would say the internal risks are very significant. They could throw all these projections out the window. The witnesses might correct me if I am wrong but would it be fair to say that when the crash came in 2007, all of the projections prior to that happening did not in any sense predict what then actually happened? When we talk about the downside risks, I wonder about all of this. I am reading that Citibank has put a percentage - I do not know how it is worked out - of 65% on the likelihood of a recession in the US this year. In the next year, it is saying that there is a 100% chance of a recession in Latin America. The Bank for International Settlements is saying that we are perilously close to another major slowdown. The IMF has made five different revisions, I think, to its growth forecasts and all are downwards. What are we doing about these risks and how do we protect ourselves? It is a kind of ideological point of "told you so" but I am going to say it anyway. Secular stagnation, in my opinion, is what Marx called the long-term tendency of the rate of profit to fall and it is materialising. It is about the ratio of capital to labour essentially appreciating. For that reason, I think that stagnation is going to continue and we are going to move into it.

Will the witnesses talk a little bit about what exactly their role is in guarding against the risk? Also, one of the most shocking things the witnesses said was that five firms account for one third of all exports. That is just shocking. The jump in the GDP figures of 26% which has spawned the term "leprechaun economics" is further confirmation of just how vulnerable we are. Five firms account for one third of exports. There are gross distortions in the growth figures. Is this a risk? It strikes me as a risk. When we are talking about downside risks, that seems to me a very extreme risk.

If I understand Mr. McCarthy correctly, he is saying that, overall, there will be a slight increase in wage income.