Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget Statement: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

1:05 pm

Professor John McHale:

This partly back goes back to the answer to the previous question. Measurement of the structural balance is so up in the air as a result of the revisions to GDP that the issues are massively bigger than speaking about 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%. There is no point in speaking about meeting the structural balance target until we know what the revisions to the output gap are. We will get this information as part of the endorsement process, as one of our functions is to endorse the macroeconomic forecasts underlying the budget, and the committee will get this information shortly after we do. It will be very important to look at how these revisions have changed these measures of the output gap and therefore, by implication, the improvement in the structural balance.

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