Dr. Gabriel Fagan:

On the surplus income, there are essentially two important main components of that. One might be called the net interest margin of the Central Bank, the difference between the interest earned on our assets and the interest paid on our liabilities. That is one component.

The second component, and a very important one in the past year or so and maybe looking forward, is the capital gains made by disposals of part of the special portfolio, the IBRC related bonds. There have been quite significant capital gains as we disposed of parts of that portfolio. These are then passed on to the Exchequer as part of the surplus income. There is a restriction in the rules at to what the Exchequer can do with that, so it cannot necessarily finance current expenditure from those capital gains, but that is part of the EUROSTAT rules.

The nice thing, in a way, is that the surplus income of the bank is remitted to the Exchequer in the following year. So, in a way, for the year 2016, we know what the surplus income is, so there should be no particular shocks there. For 2017, that will depend on the 2016 surplus income. We are not finally through the year so we cannot give the committee a definitive answer there but it is very unlikely that it will turn out lower than it was in 2016. Basically, in the short term - 2017 and 2018 - we would not be seeing significant risks but having said that, it has to be stressed that a lot depends on the policy with regard to the speed of sales of the special portfolio. Depending on how fast sales take place and the price at which the sales take place, that will influence the capital gains.