Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland
1:00 pm
Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source
Dr. Fagan places great store in consumer spending as a measure of real growth in the economy. What is his reaction to figures showing VAT returns running under profile for two months in a row? In July, VAT returns were €292 million under profile and they were a further €285 million under profile in August. Income tax returns for July were also running €99 million under profile, although they were higher than in July 2015. Is a domestic slowdown taking place sooner than the Central Bank of Ireland expected?
With regard to the figure provided on underlying domestic demand, is an international comparison available showing where Ireland stands in respect of other countries or is this a Central Bank figure?
On the issue of credibility, as we try to identify the strength of the economy, what are the Central Bank's views on recent figures, which emerged from nowhere, showing a growth rate of 25% last year? The Central Bank tries to forecast underlying domestic demand. Is work being done on producing a credible mechanism for measuring real growth or decline in the economy?
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