Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland

1:00 pm

Photo of David CullinaneDavid Cullinane (Waterford, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

My final question is similar to one of Deputy Burton's questions earlier. It concerns the letter from the Governor of the Central Bank to the Minister for Finance of 4 August, saying:

[While] the European fiscal framework prescribes a target ceiling for the stock of public debt (at sixty per cent of GDP), there are compelling reasons to develop a national target for the stock of public debt. First, the target stock of public debt naturally varies across countries in line with different risk exposures: the volatile nature of the Irish macro-financial system and the history of crises suggests a debt target that should be materially below the appropriate level for a larger, more stable economy.

Dr. Fagan gave his answers to this point earlier on. We know the debt-GDP ratio but if he is suggesting a lower percentage of GDP, on what GDP figures would it be based? Would the GDP figures include aircraft leasing and intangible assets or would they exclude them? I want to be fair to the Governor but I read from the letter that he is saying we should lower borrowing in excess of the rules. At a time when there is a dearth of capital investment across the board, that is a worry. Can Dr. Fagan explain the logic of the Governor's statement that it should be materially lower than the appropriate level for a larger, more stable country?

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