Dr. Tom McDonnell:

We could certainly produce an in-brief document on the overheating to elaborate upon those points and to discuss the commission methodology and why we think it is flawed and so on. I would be very happy to do that, though it would take a period of time. Perhaps we would try to produce it before the budget.

In terms of education and skills, the growth literature talks extensively about education. There has been much work done in this area by people like James Heckman and others, as well as the OECD which has attempted to develop a theoretical framework connecting education spending with long-term economic growth. It relates to the concept of human capital development. The early years are particularly important because that is the point at which there is the greatest capacity for human capital development. Human capital is the ability to learn, question and think for oneself. That is much easier to do in the early years than it is in later years. Also, if one loses a child in the early years, it is extremely difficult to get that person back. Obviously, it is a tragedy for the child and the family, but it is also a loss to the economy in terms of the human capital base we have. The early years are particularly important to ensure no one falls behind because once one starts to fall behind, it is extremely difficult to catch up. When I refer to early years, I am talking in particular about pre-primary education as well as primary education. I am talking about bespoke solutions, which can, unfortunately, be expensive, being available to deprived communities or households that would be considered at risk of their children falling behind.

On a related matter, there is also literature that shows that things like family income support and measures that prevent child poverty are linked to long-run economic growth because they protect the child and they serve as a barrier, potentially protecting the ability to grow and develop that human capital. Often, teachers will talk about how once a child has fallen behind, it is very difficult, expensive and costly to bring the child up to speed or to re-engage him or her. Learning needs to be inculcated very early, both in the home and within the education system. The evidence and research I have seen, including that from the OECD, suggests that the returns are largest during the early years. They are also large in the fourth level sector for very different reasons due to high potential start-ups becoming businesses, inventions, innovations and so on, but that is a very different dynamic.

Again, the figures that I cite are percentages of GDP. We know that the GDP figures are polluted. The reason I present those figures is to show that education spending, despite a young population, is off base compared with the best performing countries, generally the Nordic countries, in terms of education spending and to advocate moving in that direction in terms of the overall education spend.