Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Economic and Fiscal Position: Nevin Economic Research Institute

1:00 pm

Photo of David CullinaneDavid Cullinane (Waterford, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I have two questions. I will ask them separately because they are not related. I am not sure if Dr. McDonnell was here during the first set of exchanges. He may have been. I saw him at the back of the room for some of it. I will ask him for his view on a number of the issues that were raised. The first relates to the distorted GDP figures. In his statement, the chief economist from the Central Bank referred to the exclusion of aircraft and intangible assets when making calculations. He also argued that we should invent some sort of bespoke Irish methodology for calculating growth and GDP.

In Dr. McDonnell's view, how tenable is that? If we were to do that, would those figures be accepted internationally or by EUROSTAT? Would they fly or would they be seen as us trying to disguise a problem that might exist? Given the headlines that have gone around the world about leprechaun economics and so on, how tenable would it be to come up with a new formula or way of calculating growth? The chief economist made the point that we could then try to sell that as a new way of doing it.

There was a discussion on lowering borrowing in excess of the fiscal rules to below 60% of GDP. This was in response to a letter that was sent from the Governor of the Central Bank to the Minister for Finance. He seemed to be indicating that this would be a good thing. Again, the response from the chief economist was that this was long term. In his response long term is 2019, but the letter was sent in the context of this year's budget. That was the context in which the letter from the Governor went to the Minister for Finance. Even taking at face value that response, it would have an impact on the ability of the State to invest. Would Dr. McDonnell agree with that? Is that something he would support? Would he support the view that, whether it is short-term or long-term, we should look at reaching a debt target below the appropriate level? The Governor explained that the ceiling at the moment is 60% of GDP. That is the first part.

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