Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland

1:00 pm

Photo of Joan BurtonJoan Burton (Dublin West, Labour) | Oireachtas source

The point of my question is the impact on low levels of capital investment arising out of the crisis which almost everybody is anxious to see increased in the context of demographic pressures. The Governor writes in his letter that while the European fiscal framework prescribes a target ceiling for the stock of public debt - and he uses the figure - at 60% of GDP, there are compelling reasons to develop a national target for the stock of public debt. I am taking the figure from him. He continues that the indications are that is to be significantly lower. In the context of our present situation, I would like a clearer explanation.

I would like a clearer explanation. I understand the question of risk and so on, and we are all anxious to allow for that. However, we have compelling demographic pressures, for example, the whole area of education and population trends, younger and older. Moreover, there is extraordinary pent-up demand for housing of all kinds. We do not yet have a properly functioning credit market. My question really is about how we get the kind of public investment that we require to sustain growth. I acknowledge there is plenty of room there.

The Central Bank representatives also mentioned the Stability and Growth Pact. In the context of the pact and the 25% growth figure, what is their calculation now of the fiscal space? I would be interested to know whether the Central Bank has recalculated that figure.

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