Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland
1:00 pm
Mr. Terry Quinn:
The Governor is chairing a group looking into alternative supplementary indicators for developments in the Irish economy. They are expected to report sometime in November.
In terms of Brexit, the committee should take account of the implications of Brexit in its forecasts. It should deal with Brexit by incorporating it into its forecast for growth in the economy over the next few years. That forms part of the budgetary process.
In terms of gender-proofing the budget and whether it is regressive or progressive, our concern is with the overall fiscal stance and the fiscal rules. We really do not get into the specifics of policy in this regard. It is not that we do not individually have views on it but it is not the role of the Central Bank to get into that kind of detail.
In terms of long-term planning for our targets, the key issue is stability and underlying that is sticking to the fiscal rules. It is important to have a proper understanding of the underlying potential growth rate in the economy and to plan on that basis. The key factor there is to plan on the basis of what is a reasonable estimate of the sustainable growth rate in the economy.
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