Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland

1:00 pm

Mr. Terry Quinn:

I will address the issue of VAT and income taxes being somewhat behind profile. The slightly weaker VAT receipts are a little bit surprising given the strength in retail sales, car sales, etc. Similarly the income tax receipts from the labour markets are performing quite well and there is quite strong growth in employment. The VAT receipts are a little bit surprising but I would not be overly concerned. The profile that is published around the time of the budget is a guide and an estimate. One can get timing issues that can sometimes mean that revenue grows a little bit faster than expected at some points in the year and slower than expected at other points. I think it is too early in that one needs to look at the underlying indicators which are still quite positive. It may not be the case that VAT is behind target at the end of the year. The VAT target for this year is just under €13 billion so the slippage in that context is not huge. I would not be too worried about it. Overall actual tax receipts are growing strongly. They are ahead of profile overall, albeit mainly accounted for by corporation tax.

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