Mr. Terry Quinn:

The VAT and income tax receipts reflect activity in the economy just before the Brexit decision. They are not necessarily an indicator of a Brexit effect. One would have to wait a few months to see that. For example, VAT receipts for January and February reflect what happens in the final quarter of the previous year. It is not activity in January and February. These numbers relate to July and August. The receipts are for July and August but refer to the period just before Brexit.

We have tried to incorporate an estimate of the Brexit effect on the Irish economy in our forecast. We have taken approximately 0.2% off our projection for 2016 and 0.6% for 2017, which are significant enough revisions. Nonetheless, one is still left with a projection for GDP growth this year of just under 5% and just over 3.5% for next year.

That projection, in the context of last year's revisions in the national accounts, treats it as a level shift. It is not implying any change in the underlying trajectory of growth. While it is true that in the past two months VAT receipts have been a little bit weaker than expected, in the context of a target of €13 billion for VAT receipts this year, it is not really that significant. We are still ahead of target for the year as a whole. It is probably not wise to read too much into monthly data. Typically one would tend to take a view every quarter on trends. I would certainly wait until the September numbers are released before getting too concerned one way or the other.