Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 21 July 2016

Public Accounts Committee

2014 Annual Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General and Appropriation Accounts
Chapter 2 - Government Debt
Chapter 24 - Accounts of the National Treasury Management Agency
National Treasury Management Agency Financial Statements 2015

9:00 am

Mr. Conor O'Kelly:

Ireland has been a very big beneficiary of quantitative easing. Notwithstanding the Chairman's remarks at the beginning, the fact is that lower interest rates in general have been very helpful to us. I point out again that the budget forecast in 2013 for debt service costs in 2016 was €10 billion. Today, the cost is €7 billion and it is trending towards €6 billion. In large part, the reason for this is quantitative easing and the extraordinary interest rate environment that has been created by the interest rate policy in Europe, in addition to our improving credit story, which is obviously helping us move from being peripheral as a credit to being what we now describe as "semi-core" as a credit. We have that combination but really it is the overriding interest rate policy and the driving of interest rates lower that has assisted us. Particularly indebted nations benefit more proportionately from a lower interest rate environment and Ireland has been a very significant beneficiary.

Ultimately, this is a big debate. People are asking if this is the new normal environment or if we will return to a previous environment with which we are familiar. That debate is ongoing because when quantitative easing was initially mooted, it was supposed to be for the short term. It has been going on for much longer than anybody ever intended. The role of central banks and the limitations of monetary policy are becoming clear. That is why one is seeing a move towards the Juncker plan and fiscal policy. We have to find other ways to stimulate economies because the traditional instrument of monetary policy has clearly had limitations and is not providing the stimulus or creating the inflationary impact it was designed to have.

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