Mr. Seamus Coffey:

I will speak briefly on a point Deputy Eamon Ryan made about modelling and forecasting. One does not need a model to forecast. One can put one's finger in the air and come up with a number. I think, as Professor Alan Barrett suggested earlier, if one has a number, one must be able to justify it. One of the justifications for it is that one has some solid background to it. When it comes to trying to make forecasts for the economy, one would look at past patterns and relations between different variables and see what one might get from that. The model produces a number but one will have to sit down and question whether it makes sense. There is some subjective basis to it but one is moving from a situation where one at least has a sound theoretical base from which one can question what is happening in the economy and one can then make a judgment call either up or down One needs a starting base to begin with. In recent years, modelling on the Irish economy has improved but it is still not, and never will be, perfect. There should be a complementarity between modelling and forecasting. A model should feed into it. However, there is some subjective element to it.