Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 June 2016

Committee on Arrangements for Budgetary Scrutiny

Engagement with Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

10:00 am

Photo of Eamon RyanEamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

On the issue of timing, the possibility of having a third meeting would make a lot of sense. My general understanding of the OECD review of the budgetary scrutiny process is that there is a need for more timely intervention by the Oireachtas in advance of decisions being made as part of the process. As we heard in an earlier presentation, such open scrutiny would improve the public policy approach to budgeting. Is it not possible in order to inform the process, rather than having a meeting in December after the budget is published and a meeting during the summer after publication of the summer economic statement, to have dialogue between the committee and the Fiscal Advisory Council in the interim period, possibly in April before publication of the stability update or in June in advance of publication of the summer statement or the national economic dialogue? A meeting held in advance might improve the quality of that dialogue. Similarly, the idea of having a meeting in September in advance of the more final budget negotiations makes sense. If we are to have a third meeting which would be good, could we switch the date to make it part of a live process?

I was interested in what Professor McHale had to say about the need for better forecasting in the medium term. I do not know whether he heard Professor Barrett from the ESRI. What is the difference between forecasting and modelling? Is the model the tool to deliver forecasts? Is Professor McHale saying we need to use that model as part of this process to deliver forecasts? Is there another mechanism for delivering the forecasts he is considering?

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