Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 3 December 2015

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 pm

Dr. Thomas Conefrey:

I wish to add to Dr. O'Sullivan's comments on comparing what happened during the boom and whether it is fair to compare the increase in spending to what happened before. The scale and magnitude of the increases in spending are not like what happened during the boom but neither is the debt level. The debt level now is close to 100% of GDP. We know how vulnerable that leaves the economy if there is a downturn. We saw what happened when the debt level was 20% of GDP and the crisis hit. We saw how fast it increased.

Deputy Boyd Barrett spoke of the risks of another shock. We need to realise how little room for manoeuvre we have if we are starting out from a debt level of 100% of GDP. It may not be fully comparable to what happened during the boom but the economy is also far more vulnerable than it was during the boom. Therefore, we have to tailor our policies and the degree of caution to where the public finances are now.

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