Dr. Thomas Conefrey:

It is still in the gross export numbers we are seeing. When we spoke about this matter this time last year, we were concerned that the gross export numbers were being boosted, but we were not seeing the offset we expected on the imports side. This very strong boost was temporary. The offset on the imports side now seems to be happening more or less in line with the growth in exports. On the basis of the numbers available to us, we think they are broadly cancelling each other out. The Irish economy has always been like this. There can be very large increases in output in high-productivity sectors without the same gains in employment.

Employment growth is increasing at 2.7% year on year and output growth is growing at over 6%. The truth, in terms of how people can feel it, is somewhere between the level of employment growth and the strong output growth.

There is also the question of debt. People still have a good deal of debt. A person with a large mortgage, who took out that mortgage during the boom, will have made some progress but a significant cohort of the population is still dealing with that.