Professor John McHale:

The first thing to be said is that the Irish economy is a volatile economy, partly because it is so open and it has a large multinational sector. The problem is inherently difficult. We struggle with it as well. The Deputy raised the particular issue of medium-term forecasting. We have said in a number of reports and directly to the Department of Finance that we believe it needs to strengthen its tools for medium-term forecasting, particularly if it is to develop its understanding of the supply side of the economy. There is some good news on that front. The Department of Finance is beginning to develop those tools. We are also engaged in a significant research programme to try to develop such tools. We need to develop a much better understanding of medium-term forecasting at the level of the Department of Finance and at the level of the economics community as a whole in Ireland.