Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 October 2015

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance

6:10 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

There is. We informed the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council that the forecasts were based on the €1.2 billion figure. We also informed the council what the relevant multiplier would be, in other words, if there was a different fiscal package, what the impact on the economy might be. Typically or on average we use a multiplier of 0.5, but that depends on various instruments used, whether on the tax or the expenditure side, since there may be a slightly different multiplier. The numbers that we will publish this day week will take into account the full budgetary package. We will have to change the economic forecasts should there be any deviation from the €1.2 billion figure. However, I am not in a position to say whether there will be a change. I will be informed in the coming days and we will adjust the macro forecasts accordingly.

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