Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 October 2015

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Macroeconomic Forecast for 2016: Department of Finance

5:35 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

-----so to be fair, that is where I was coming from. It was done on a three year basis. We felt that because there was a backward looking element that it took into account the very negative potential growth rates from too far back. As a result there was discussion between the Minister and his ECOFIN colleagues and the Department then produced a technical paper which we submitted to the directorate general of ECOFIN, which monitored us for compliance with the pact. It said we had a very strong economic case – this was back in April or May - and it agreed that it would be reassessed for all member states on an annual basis. This meant that our potential growth rate, on average, over the horizon was moved up by three or four percentage points. It went from 0.7% up to 1.9%. This resulted in us having additional fiscal space of 0.4% of GDP. I cannot do the arithmetic, but the GDP is approximately €200 billion. If the Deputy has a calculator, 0.4% of spending of €60 billion could be worked out from that. At the time of the stability programme this meant there was somewhere between €1.2 billion and €1.5 billion of fiscal space available for 2016. The stability programme was based on the assumption of €1.2 billion, as mentioned in my opening statement, but that is the amount of space available to ensure compliance with the preventive arm of the pact.

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