Simon Coveney (Cork South Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

First, it has not happened yet, so we cannot give definitive answers on that but I anticipate that the current herd number will be able to produce between 15% and 17% more milk. That is the estimate we have. In other words, we can improve the yield per cow significantly. Many NGOs, in particular, that talk about concerns around emissions and climate change miss this point. The Irish dairy herd can produce much more milk and reduce the emissions intensity of that milk production because the same cow of the same age will be producing more milk by better grazing management, better feed conversion efficiency and so on. We are putting a great deal of research into that.

There will undoubtedly also be an increase in the herd size between now and 2020. We think this will be about an extra 300,000 animals. Correct me if I am wrong, but I think those are the figures. Obviously some more land will be needed for that, but there is a great deal of land in Ireland that is under-utilised in terms of stocking rate and with improved efficiency and better grazing management, many dairy farmers will be able to expand their output without requiring a lot more land. Certainly there will be more competition for land among dairy farmers. That is true. We are not predicting a significant reduction, for example, in beef output as regards suckler beef on the back of that. What we will see now is a more focused look at how we use agricultural land more efficiently and more sustainably. In all of our counties there are good examples of farms that could be more efficient and getting more young farmers into farming will help on that journey in terms of applying a more science-based approach to production.

There will be an increased herd size. We have already seen that in terms of the calving numbers this year, which are strong, and we have seen about a 12% increase in output of milk. We have probably had the best grass growth this year that we have ever had. If one speaks to the co-ops, as we did yesterday, at the moment dairy farmers are getting very strong bonuses in terms of quality in milk components, which is helping with the difficulty as regards base price.

There will be advance payments on GLAS and organics. What we had planned was €20 million on GLAS and €10 million on organics. We are now trying to plan €22 million on GLAS and €11.5 million on organics, which would be an 85% advance payment rather than a 75% advance payment. We should, I hope, be able to factor that into our Estimates for this year.