Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 10 September 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
Mr. Ajai Chopra:
This is, again, something that I addressed in some detail in the context of my written statement but just to summarise - firstly, I think it's ... kudos to Ireland for having strengthened its financial institutions. I think you've got a first-rate Fiscal Advisory Council, with very able people. They've established credibility quickly and they produce excellent reports, and I think they've improved the quality of the fiscal debate. Also, the Department of Finance, you know, its medium-term budgetary framework, I think is, you know, again an excellent document. So, the fiscal framework and fiscal institutions are much better. Ireland is now emerging from the excessive deficit procedure but it still has a structural deficit according to the IMF in their latest post-programme monitoring report. This is a deficit of ... a structural deficit of 1.5% of GDP. I would support my former colleagues in recommending that Ireland attempt to ... should aim to achieve structural fiscal balance, so fiscal balance over the cycle and if that is the goal - and your structural deficit right now is 1.5% of GDP - I think doing a 0.5% adjustment over, you know, the course of three years so that you get to balance by 2018, is a very reasonable target. Yes, it will have headwinds for growth but Ireland is growing strongly. This is the time to do the fiscal consolidation.
On the measures, I think, you know, again, all I will say is that, you know, it shouldn't be ... I think it needs a combination of revenue and spending measures. Capital expenditure and, maybe, social expenditure have been pushed down too much. So, you know, these should be looked at. I'm less familiar with the details on this but the general principle is both spending and revenue should be on the table.
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