Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 9 September 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Aidan Walsh:

Just, I would like to add to that, is that these scenarios were done in October 2008, which was around the time of the budget for the following year. And that budget was framed against assumptions that GDP would decline by 1% in 2009 and unemployment might rise to 7%. That was consistent with the outlook from the third quarter report from the Central Bank of the same time. The outturn for 2009 was that GDP declined by something ... 7% and unemployment rose to 15%. So the, the economic outlook in official documentation at the time was far more benign than the recession that evolved in Ireland over the subsequent two years.

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