Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 22 July 2015
Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis
Nexus Phase
Mr. David Begg:
Well, I can think of one board member who did at least actually query, you know, the robustness of the financial position of the banks. What I think happened, actually, was this: if you reflect back on that period of time, around 2006 there was a, sort of, a tapering off which appeared to suggest, you know, that the cooling off was actually happening in the economy. There was a lot of concern publicly about this, in political circles and so on, a lot of commentary on it, and then suddenly the whole thing started to rev up again, right. But then, in 2007, it began to taper off again. So the initial, sort of, shock, I suppose, that the construction sector was in cooling was, kind of, assuaged a little bit by the trend ... the second part of that trend. And I think that's what probably gave rise to the assurances about the soft landing or the conviction that the soft landing would actually happen. But I want to be at pains to say that my personal thinking is that this all has to be located in the context of what was the international orthodoxy at the time. And my feeling is - just to finish on this point very quickly - I mean, the epitome of that was Greenspan going before the US congressional committee and saying, "There's a flaw. I didn't think there was a flaw, but there is a flaw". But everybody else was working under the flawed conditions, if you like, and people believed it.
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