Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 9 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Dr. Michael Somers:

Yes.

Well, I feel ... in terms of AIB, the Minister has €3.5 billion of preference shares there, which he's getting 8% on. That's, what, €218 million a year. He has €1.6 billion in CoCos, these convertible shares, which he's getting 10% on, that's €160 million. So that's 400 and something million per year that he can get in interest out of the bank. Now, the bank is supposed to be worth €10 billion or €11 billion. It's not my decision, by the way, but if it was ... if I sold the bank ... and you sell it in a tranche, say, you sell 25% of the thing, you're going to have to sell it at a discount because people are not going to pay you the full value for, you know, the shares where the State is still a 75% shareholder, so you're going to have to ... because they don't know what you're going to do. So you're going to have to sell at a discount, so you're not going to get full value there. Now, as you sell further tranches, I suppose you'd get a bit more value. But even if you were to, say, to sell the whole lot today and you got, say, €12 billion, the ... as I understand it, the only thing you can do with that money is use it to pay down the national debt, you can't actually use it to spend on, you know, worthwhile projects. Now, if you use it to pay down the national debt, well, I think the ten-year rate on Irish Government bonds is about 1.7%. So that's just over €200 million that you'll save on interest payments on the national debt. However, if you don't do that, you can collect 400 and something million per year in interest, which you can do what you like with. You know, that comes in as general Government revenue as far as I know. Do what you like with it. And you also still have your investment of €11 billion or €12 billion, which hopefully will go up over the years and maybe, with a bit of luck, you might get close to the €21 billion. But, I mean, if you do it today, if you had to have a fire sale of AIB today, I suppose you'd get half that and then you have to ... then you crystalise the loss of €10 billion.

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