Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev:

The crucial issue is that the figure is the spot estimate, in other words, an immediate number in this month, which is available after the fact. The ECB is looking forward at inflation expectations. I mentioned the quantitative measure for inflation is five years - five-year swaps - but this is just one year. In ballpark terms, if the ECB is expecting the economy to lift in the future, it will adjust its inflation expectations towards high inflation and may not do anything. Back in those days - the Acting Chairman referred to the years 2009 and 2011 - if one looks at one-year forward forecasts of economic growth, we even used to joke that the 3% growth rate was always forecast for the following year.

Every year, the ECB was predicting higher and higher rates of growth. Its forecasting was basically shot; it was not good.