Mr. Brian Cowen:

It wasn't just a theory. It was based on what was happening. It wasn't a theory saying, "Here, we'll go with a soft landing theory as distinct from a hard landing theory." They were looking at what was happening in the market. They were dealing with the people working in the market. And they were being told, "You're going to see a drop in housing output next year of about 40,000." And they would then bring forward a budgetary framework based on that.

And, then they'd say to them, "Well, what do you think about the following year?" "Probably 35", and they'd put that into their budgetary framework, having checked it out, and see how accurate it is, how well ... how good an assessment it is. I mean, and that ... and, at the end of the day, forecasts, as I said, they're less than useless in terms of predicting an inflexion point in a cycle ... if you're going ... if over a period of years, you're going this way, as we were, then you're forecasting, if you like, based on data before and looking to the future, absent any major crises in here, is facing up this way. If you hit a dip and you then look for a forecast, that'll have you down here rather than ... maybe you'll end up half ... I mean, forecasting is not an exact science, and maybe all of us got a bit fixated by them and decided, "Yes, that is the way it is", because every forecast is based on certain assumptions-----