Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Photo of Ciarán LynchCiarán Lynch (Cork South Central, Labour) | Oireachtas source

Perfect, thank you very much. Mr. Cowen, I just want to take one line of questioning with myself and then I propose that we take a short suspension. Mr. Cowen, the Department of Finance received many economic forecasting reports from external sources like the ESRI, Central Bank, IMF, OECD and, in turn, the Department prepared briefing notes and in some cases, speaking notes for you. So, an example of these would be coming up on the screen at the moment there now is an IMF-related document they prepared for you reported at 2003, article 5 - consultation and if you look at the employment headline there it says, ''The IMF contend that any considerable increase in unemployment more likely when the cap on public sector recruitment is implemented may have a knock on effect the housing market which could postpone the pick up in activity.''

There is another briefing document that was issued to you this, the first one is in 2003, next one is 2004 - ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary. Once again under the housing output one there it says, ''The ESRI has highlighted the Irish economy's exposure to the high volume of house building.'' These are all, kind of, one-page documents, briefing documents.

There is another one then that comes up. This is a Central Bank quarterly bulletin - I think it's from 2005 -and the very last paragraph of that page makes mention to the bank, also expresses concern about ''the current high rate of house price inflation.'' And the last one then, is an OECD autumn report of 2007 economic forecasts and if you can move down mid-page there, it says, ''Nevertheless, the risks of the international outlook are skewed to the downside with the key risks including a more pronounced cooling of housing markets, the possibility of additional financial market turbulence, further upward pressure on commodity prices such as food and oil", and so forth.

So, as I said, these are one page briefing documents, they are issued to politicians on an ongoing basis. Preparation for Leaders' Questions and such, maybe for a meeting with a Finance official, visiting delegation or whatever. When you receive these notes, Mr. Cowen, would you have knowledge of the original documents that were given to you and the substantive material behind these or did you fully rely on the notes received from the Department?

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