Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Brian Cowen:

Well, they did have this capacity, obviously. I mean, of course the Department of Finance have that capacity and would claim that over a long period of time, as I was saying in the earlier session, they were as accurate as anyone else, if not better than most. If you look from '97 to '07, it's sort of a little bit of a competition, I think, between all these forecasters to see who gets it right most often or who's the closest to the actual outturn. But you'd look at all of this. As I was saying at an earlier session as well, you know, based on examining the same data, they usually converge around an area of difference that's not huge one way or the other and you'd ... they would then, having looked at all the outside data and their own internal assessment of the situation, they would come and say to me "Look, we think you put it into your budget that we're going to grow 4.5% next year instead of 4.25%." I'd say, "Fine, if that's what you think, we'll run with that."

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