Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 2 July 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. Brian Cowen:

Yes, just to clarify, it was a reduction of 40% to 60% over an eight-year period. When the liquidity crisis hit, that 40% to 50% came quickly and ... I'm just making the point, no more than he or I could see it, the man was more accurate, in any event ... I'm just saying, but ... I just want to make that point - it was over an eight-year period. It wasn't ... he wasn't predicting overnight this is going to happen. And I was saying that he saw that as the wider ... first round effects of that would be higher unemployment because of less labour in the construction industry because of reduced output. What we saw was, that came out, as I was saying ... I explained that in my statement, really, how ... how that came out was as a research paper attached to the ESRI bulletin, which is fine, I mean, that's okay, but ... and then Alan Barrett's ... gave the ESRI assessment that morning in ... in "Morning Ireland". And, to be honest, the Department of Finance view was more consonant with Dr. Barrett's view, although less accurate than it was with Morgan Kelly's view.

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